Out of service

Editor's note: New estimates for what a 7.0 earthquake could do to the Wasatch Front are scary: It could kill more than 6,000 people, injure 90,000 and cause a $40 billion economic hit. In a five-part series, the Deseret Morning News describes such a future quake — as if worst-case scenarios proved to be true.

As the ground stops shaking after the great Utah 7.0 earthquake of 2008, about 286,000 homes along the Wasatch Front are without water and sewer service, and 240,000 are without electricity.

"In Salt Lake County, that means virtually everyone is without water and power," Bob Carey, earthquake specialist for the state Office of Emergency Services, predicted correctly in 2006 about the effect of such a big quake.

The violent quake shook Utahns on a snowy, busy weekday — Friday, Feb. 1. And residents will be without such utilities not for just a few minutes. It will be at least days for most. In many cases, it will be weeks. And in some cases, it even will be months.

"It will show the importance of personal and family preparedness" for stored water, food and fuel, Carey said in 2006.

As with water and power, damage to other utilities is also extensive. Much telephone service is out, as is much cell phone service. Natural gas breaks are common, but too many people needlessly (and foolishly) turn off gas to their homes as a precaution, cutting off heat to homes in the freezing weather of the day.

Meanwhile, some small dams are scaring officials, although major dams survive the quake without significant damage. If such a quake had hit 20 years earlier — before recent and extensive seismic upgrades — many big dams would have failed, unleashing floods on Salt Lake City, Ogden and Provo, and decimating water supplies.

While that sort of disaster was averted, many Wasatch Front residents are still roughing it with no or limited utilities — and that will continue for what will feel like a long, long time.

Water

Computer modeling by state emergency services in 2006 offered a bleak forecast on how fast water and sewer service might be restored.

Of the 286,000 or so homes predicted to be without water service initially, forecasts said 230,000 still would not have it fully restored even after a month, giving new importance to whether residents stored any water on their own. But the projections predicted that all customers would have service restored within 90 days.

However, LeRoy W. Hooton Jr., director of Salt Lake City Public Utilities, predicted in 2006 that restoration of at least emergency water service would be much quicker, at least in areas served by his agency, because of extensive preparations it had made.