"Fires are probably at the bottom of their list for things to worry about," Carey had predicted. So many of the fires started by the earthquake burn uncontrolled. First responders are also too overwhelmed to immediately help most people trapped or hurt in individual homes — so such victims must depend on their families and neighbors.

Initial response is further hampered because Salt Lake City's emergency dispatch center has been knocked out of service because of damage to the city Public Safety Building at 315 E. 200 South, a nearly 50-year-old office tower built before seismic safety steps were well-known or required.

The city's police and fire chiefs warned in 2006 that the building was not safe in an earthquake. They sought $108.2 million for a new building, part of a proposed $150 million bond that would have also improved many other police and fire stations.

But the cost was high, and opposition blocked it late in 2006 and 2007.

When the bond was first proposed in March 2006, Mike Stever, the city's emergency management director, said, "It is of paramount importance to have a public safety building that is earthquake sound. Our dispatch is in that (old) building, and it would not take an earthquake as big as a 7.0 to cause problems."

He noted that even if the dispatch center there survived a quake, the many windows on that building would be knocked out — and if it happened on a wintry day, such as the day of the 2008 quake, the storm would quickly come indoors into what was left of the dispatch center, harming equipment and closing it.

As Stever had predicted, that dispatch center closure forces the Valley Emergency Communications Center — which handles 911 calls for other agencies in the valley — to also handle calls from Salt Lake City, and to handle dispatch for it. But that center is already overwhelmed, trying to handle problems in other parts of the county.

Stever had warned earlier, "I think people in our valley have expected to call 911 and have help there in three minutes. But in the event of a catastrophic event, it's not going to happen. People are going to be on their own. It will give new meaning to individual and family preparation."

Garrett, director of the state Office of Emergency Services, said in 2006 that may be the central lesson of all the computer modeling and emergency exercises agencies conducted through the years about how to handle catastrophes.

He said accurately in 2006, "The impact to the community is going to be huge. And it is going to be imperative for our recovery for an event of this magnitude that our citizens are prepared. The citizens most prepared are the ones who are going to fare better."

Carey added at the time, "The bigger the earthquake is, the tougher it will be for the government to take care of you."

As arranged well in advance, other counties, states and federal agencies will begin almost immediately shipping resources and people to help. But it will take time, especially with winter storms and the extensive damage.

Monday: How structures — from homes to schools, churches and bridges — fare in the great earthquake of 2008.

---

E-mail: lee@desnews.com