Nuclear security gaps must be closed

Two events last week underline the reason for continuing concern about Iran's nuclear intentions.

One was the Iranian claim that it had successfully test fired a missile not detectable by radar that can use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously. The Fajr-3 (which means "victory" in Farsi) is claimed by Iranian sources to have a range capable of reaching Israel and therefore American bases in the Middle East.

The second event, disclosed at a U.S. congressional hearing, was that in a test by government investigators, they were able to smuggle into the country enough radioactive material to make two dirty bombs. In the test last December, the investigators managed to sneak small amounts of such material across U.S. border crossing points in Washington state and Texas. Radiation alarms went off, but security inspectors were fooled by phony documents and allowed the material through. If the investigators could do it, terrorists might be able to.

The Iranian position is that it will pursue a nuclear energy program for peaceful purposes, but that it is not making nuclear weapons. Western nations do not believe that, especially as Iran has a long record of duplicity about its nuclear intentions.

The possibility that Iran under an erratic regime could build and possess a nuclear bomb is itself cause for concern. However the possibility that such a weapon could fall into the hands of terrorists — who have been supported by Iran — is of much greater concern.

If rogue nations like Iran and North Korea should even think of using such a weapon themselves against the United States, its military forces or allies like Israel, they would have to confront the certainty of devastating U.S. retaliation. The retaliation would likely be as awesome if it were clear that they had given the bomb to terrorists.

But we know that terrorists like al-Qaida have expressed interest in acquiring a nuclear bomb. To do so, their options are to steal it, to buy it or to build it, perhaps with the know-how and cooperation of a nation like Iran, friendly to their ambitions.

In a new study of the threat of catastrophic nuclear terrorism and steps to prevent it, Charles D. Ferguson says that some 27,000 nuclear weapons currently exist in the arsenals of eight nations — Britain, China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and the United States. All but about 1,000 of these are in Russia and the United States.

Ferguson, a scientist expert on nuclear safety issues, and a former nuclear engineering officer on a ballistic-missile submarine, carried out the study for the Council on Foreign Relations, where he is a fellow.