Demos have high hopes, GOP has numbers

With the candidate filing deadline passing last Friday, the races are set for Utah's U.S. Senate and three U.S. House contests this year.

As usual, Democrats have high hopes.

As usual, Republicans have high numbers — both in incumbents and likely GOP voters.

State Rep. LaVar Christensen, R-Draper, believes he has a real shot at unseating Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in the sprawling 2nd Congressional District.

Maybe.

But Matheson has survived three elections in the district, and as the Utah election season formally began with party caucuses last Tuesday, the lone Democrat in the federal delegation looks stronger than ever.

U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, who wants an unprecedented 36 years in the U.S. Senate, has a lot of money, high name recognition.

Some Utahns may be tiring of Hatch, who was first elected in 1976. But even though Democrat Pete Ashdown says he will run a tough race against Hatch, no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race here since 1970 — so long ago that most Utahns alive today can only remember Orrin Hatch in this seat.

You may recall that state Rep. Steve Urquhart, R-St. George, briefly got into the GOP Senate race last summer before realizing he couldn't win and got out.

The danger to Hatch was not Urquhart. The danger was that such a rebellion within his own party could lead a millionaire Wasatch Front Republican to challenge Hatch within the party.

That could have been trouble.

Avoiding that, Hatch now looks unbeatable — assuming he doesn't have many more public "senior moments" when he forgets fellow GOP officeholders' names and/or praises Matheson. (He did both last year.)

Hatch has four Republicans who filed against him. But two are unknown and two are party dissidents. If one of them can manage to get out of the state GOP convention, it will be a great embarrassment to Hatch. But he'll just grit his teeth, spend some of his $1 million-plus war chest and stomp them in a June Republican primary.

Christensen doesn't have the personal wealth to carry much of his campaign against Matheson. He'll get some outside help, yes.

But the Republican National Congressional Committee — which pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into the 2nd District race in 2002 and 2004 against Matheson — may not want to put so much cash into the contest this year, considering Matheson's previous wins.