Utah County flood threat is likely less than '05

The verdict is still out, but the National Weather Service anticipates the threat of flooding in Utah County will be less this spring than it was a year ago.

The snowpack in the mountains east of Utah County is about 120 percent of normal — 20 percent to 30 percent less than it was a year ago at this time, said Brian McInerney, hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City.

But don't put away those sandbags just yet.

"The thing that might change that, though, is the kind of spring climate we have," McInerney said.

In 2005, the cool and wet weather through late May followed by rapid warming was "very conducive to promoting a flood scenario," he said.

"We don't want to replicate that. If we do, then the flood threat heightens," McInerney said.

Continued storm activity is expected through this week, adding to the snowpack, he said.

"The crux will be how the spring climate shapes the runoff," McInerney said.

Warm and dry weather in early April would significantly decrease the flood threat, he said. Wet and cool weather, however, would continue to augment the snowpack and create potential flooding problems.

"It's a wait and see game," McInerney said.

The high runoff last year should help reduce the flood threat this spring, he said. Prior to 2005, stream channels had four years of below-average flows, but a flushing flow last spring helped to clear channels and increase their capacity.

In addition, soil moisture is not as great this year as it was in 2005, McInerney said.

"All of those things reduce the flood threat to the point where we're a little more comfortable," he said.