The Academy Awards guessing game

I can do better. Much better.

Picking most or all of the Academy Award winners the past two years has pretty much been a no-brainer, since the heavily favored "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" took home the lions' share of trophies.

However, that still didn't stop me from making some dumb predictions — and going 10-for-16 with my picks last year, 11-for-15 the previous year. That, for a perfectionist like me, is pretty disappointing.

This year's Oscars appear to be no-brainers again, and there seems to be a certain agenda to the nominations. But if nothing else, they should have a different flavor, since "The Daily Show's" Jon Stewart will be hosting Sunday's ceremonies.

BEST PICTURE

• Nominated: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."

• Will win: It has to be "Brokeback Mountain," which has cleaned up in nearly all of the pre-Oscar awards.

• Should win: For getting the entire country talking, "Brokeback Mountain."

BEST ACTOR

• Nominated: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

• Will win: Hoffman, though it wouldn't be a complete upset if Ledger got the nod.

• Should win: Hoffman, whose performance as Truman Capote was no mere imitation.

BEST ACTRESS

• Nominated: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "TransAmerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."

• Will win: Witherspoon, who's gone quickly from Next Big Thing to one of Hollywood's "It" girls.

• Should win: Witherspoon, who stole the movie out from under co-star, Phoenix.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Nominated: George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."