But in both countries, as elsewhere in the region, the pro-market side must battle corruption and entrenched interests. And those aren't the only forces working against them. The Middle East is exploding with young people who need jobs. And countries not awash in oil, like Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, are suffering from calcified economies.

In Syria, said Marwan Kabalan, a political scientist at the University of Damascus, the government needs to create 300,000 new jobs a year. But last year, he said, only about 45,000 were created.

Can economic changes move forward without significant political reform? Those leaders who say yes can point to the Chinese model, where dictators oversee a thriving economy. But many people outside of ruling circles, and even insiders, are skeptical. Political stability is essential to win the foreign investment needed.

Others say that in the long term, better economic conditions will not be enough.

"In the short run, people will put up with political indignity if their economic well being is taken care of," said Rami Khouri, a Jordanian political commentator and writer based in Lebanon. "The next generation that grows up and is born into a middle-class life, they will demand political freedom." — Michael Slackman

EASTERN EUROPE — UKRAINE AND BELARUS, SEPARATED AT BIRTH

Elections will take place this spring in two former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Belarus, that are headed in very different directions after 14 years of independence. The outcomes could reverberate across Europe's eastern frontier.

On March 19, Belarus is to hold a presidential election that will return its autocratic leader, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, to power. Very few doubt the outcome, because very few believe the election will be fair.

Lukashenko, a former collective farm boss elected in 1994, has steadily turned Belarus into a miniature version of the Soviet Union itself, with a state-run economy and a security apparatus that punishes dissent.

He has amended the Constitution to increase his power and allow him to seek re-election indefinitely. Criticism has only hardened his stance; in December he pushed through a law criminalizing protests and statements discrediting the state.

"We realize there are no real elections in Belarus," said Aleksandr Dobrovolsky, an adviser to the leading opposition candidate, Aleksandr Milinkevich. "No one is going to count the votes."

Lukashenko's opponents seem not to be running an election campaign as much as they are trying to organize an uprising.

"We must be prepared to take people out into the street," Dobrovolsky said.