Democrats may catch GOP sleeping in 2006

2006 is just around the corner.

It will be a big election year in Utah, with a U.S. Senate race, all three congressional seats up, all of the 75-member Utah House and 15 of the 29 state Senate districts facing elections.

Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. doesn't face re-election until 2008, but he will likely be involved in helping get fellow Republicans elected in Utah.

As 2005 ends and a new year begins, here are some predictions of what we may see politically in 2006:

• Sen. Orrin Hatch is seeking a record-setting 36 years in the U.S. Senate. Everyone is predicting a Hatch re-election. But I think it will be a rocky road for the senior senator.

Hatch has had what fellow-U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett calls some "senior moments" over the past year.

Hatch clearly forgot the names of U.S. representatives (and fellow Republicans) Chris Cannon and Rob Bishop during a speech at the GOP state convention in August, even though both men were sitting on the stage behind him.

He confused Vietnam with Iraq in a public statement — a mistake that Hatch's staff had to correct later.

Hatch has reportedly had some angry moments with members of his staff, as well.

As of now, Hatch does not have a serious challenge from within his own party, state Rep. Steve Urquhart, R-St. George, getting in and out of that challenge this summer.

But before Hatch's re-election run is over in November, expect to see a serious campaign by millionaire Democrat Pete Ashdown, and the question of Hatch's mental acuteness explored in the campaign.

• Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, will have his most serious challenge yet next year.

Fellow Republican John Jacobs says he'll spend upwards of $1 million of his own money challenging Cannon for the Republican nomination.

Before the intraparty battle is done, Jacobs may well spend a lot more than $1 million. "I don't get in a race to lose," Jacobs, a water and land developer, told the Deseret Morning News this fall.

Since Cannon, who has seen his net worth plunge from tens of millions of dollars to around $1 million since he entered Congress in 1997, may not have the personal assets to match Jacobs' spending, he'll have to fund-raise from individuals and special interests.

Cannon has not done well at the money-raising game in the past — but didn't need to since he historically has had weak financial opponents. (Former state Democratic chairman Donald Dunn being the exception.)

If Jacob gets close to Cannon at the polls — or defeats him — and if Hatch falters in his re-election efforts, look for a sea-change in Utah GOP politics: Incumbents will no longer be safe from serious intra-party challengers.

• Utahns will get a big tax cut next year.