Progress not likely at WTO summit

GENEVA — Seattle, Cancun . . . Hong Kong?

Trade summits in the first two cities collapsed amid bickering and strident street protests. Now trade ministers hope Hong Kong, where they gather for next week's World Trade Organization meeting, won't become a third name on that list.

But they've done a good job of making that prospect a real possibility.

Talks leading up to the summit have reached an impasse over agricultural trade, with many negotiators blaming European Union unwillingness to further cut farm subsidies and tariffs.

But to avoid a complete failure, trade ministers will strenuously strive to make modest progress in at least some areas at the Dec. 13-18 meeting, experts say.

"Two scenarios emerge as the most likely outcomes for the Hong Kong ministerial: a breakdown in negotiations or lowered expectations that allow for progress toward a less ambitious trade round," said Philippe de Pontet, an analyst at the Eurasia Group in Washington.

The Hong Kong meeting was supposed to produce a framework for a treaty outlining specific measures countries must take to cut trade barriers across a wide range of sectors, with the goal of concluding the so-called Doha Round by the end of 2006, five years after it was launched in Qatar's capital.

But in recent weeks, members have openly admitted they will fail to achieve that objective in Hong Kong. In fact, some have already said it will be necessary to hold follow-up summit early next year.

WTO chief Pascal Lamy's recently released draft text, which lays out the basis for negotiations on a final agreement for the summit, shows how far members are from agreeing on critical issues, including the liberalization of trade in farm products and manufactured goods.

"We do not pretend that this text represents agreement overall," Lamy said.

"Although we may have 'recalibrated' the specific level of ambition for the Hong Kong meeting, it must nonetheless provide the launching pad for finishing the round in 2006," he said.

The WTO's 148 members — Saudi Arabia will be admitted as the 149th member ahead of the meeting — are under pressure to wrap things up by that date because the United States' "fast-track" trade approval process expires on July 1, 2007.