Snowpack averages at drought-era levels

OGDEN (AP) — A year ago, Utah's mountains were buried in snow. Many drainages were at 150 percent of normal. Rain had soaked the soil, hopes were raised that the six-year drought was ending.

But now, four weeks into the new water year, snowpack averages are down to drought-era levels, although a winter storm watch was in effect for Utah over the weekend.

The Ogden-Weber drainage was at 79 percent of average earlier this week, and the Bear River drainage was 82 percent of average.

Brian McInerney, hydrologist at the U.S. Weather Service in Salt Lake City, said he is always hesitant to declare a drought over after only one year of good water.

He said that too often, the next year can go right back to drought conditions.

It is too early to say that is happening in Utah this winter, he said, but he cannot say it won't, either.

A high pressure ridge settled over the state about two weeks ago, trapping cold air in the valleys, preventing storms from passing over and producing fog.

In the South Pacific, there is evidence neither of an El Nino warming trend nor of a La Nina cooling trend.

"We're neutral this year, and with the neutral conditions typically Salt Lake City and Ogden are drier than normal, below average precipitation," he said.

However, sometimes it is not drier.

"Our forecast still is very weak, because without a strong El Nino in the equatorial Pacific, long-range forecasting is very weak," he said.

There are some good conditions, McInerney said.

For one, after only a month of the new water year, snow levels are always so low that a few inches one way or the other can make the percentages of average look very different. "If we were below average in February-March, then we would have a concern," he said.

Plus, water storage conditions going into winter are better this year. The last water year was above average, he said, so the underground aquifers were recharged, and Willard Bay, almost dry a year ago, is full. Most mountain reservoirs have good holdovers from the summer's irrigation system.