Real surprise would be Urquhart staying in race

State Rep. Steve Urquhart's announcement this week that he is dropping his challenge to U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch is no big surprise.

The surprise would have been if Urquhart, R-St. George, had actually gone through with it all the way to at least the state GOP convention next spring.

Hatch, R-Utah, has the immense power of the incumbency.

He has $1.9 million in cash in his campaign account and could probably raise three times that.

Urquhart had $3,600 in his account.

As expected, rumors are flying as to exactly why Urquhart got out of the race. (The candidate filing deadline is not until March, so any number of Republicans could still file against Hatch.)

One rumor says that GOP leaders talked to Urquhart, explained he couldn't win, that his criticism of Hatch (he is too old, lacks energy, is not focused on Utah issues and doesn't take care of his constituency) will only serve to embarrass Hatch and give the ultimate Democratic opponent more ammunition against Hatch — who will probably win anyway.

One rumor is that influential Republicans will help Urquhart not only win re-election to his St. George district (he's a popular guy, as best as I can tell, the district is heavily Republican and Urquhart should hold it easily with or without state GOP help), but will help him win the speakership in a few years as current Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy, moves on.

I have to laugh at the last promise — if, indeed, it was made.

I've watched legislative leadership elections for 25 years and there is no way to figure them out. Rarely do candidates for Senate president or House speaker really know where they stand with their party colleagues.

There are great stories about leadership races. Here are a few:

• One House GOP representative thought he had the race locked up. I would check with him each week as the leadership election neared (they are most often held right after the general legislative elections — first Tuesday in November, even-numbered years).