BYU geologist warns of a 2nd Asian quake

A Brigham Young University geologist who warned about the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit the Indian Ocean last December says another monster quake could be building in the region, near the island of Timor.

Ron Harris, geology professor at BYU in Provo, is among presenters speaking at the Geological Society of America's annual meeting. The session began Sunday and concludes Wednesday at the Salt Palace.

Harris' talk, to be delivered Wednesday, is titled "In Harm's Way: Tectonic Hazards of the Eastern Sunda Arc Region, Indonesia."

For many years he has been studying the geologic record of past earthquakes in Indonesia. In 1997, through a Fulbright fellowship, he lived in the island nation for about five months to further his research. He and Indonesian colleagues studied evidence for a pattern of recurring earthquakes in the region.

The pattern showed that in sections of the Sumatra subduction zone, sections "had not ruptured in a longer time than the normal recurrence interval of earthquakes" there, he said in a telephone interview Sunday. The team estimated the frequency of magnitude 8-plus earthquakes at 110 years to 130 years, depending on the section.

In one area such an earthquake had not struck since 1833, and in another, since 1861. Also, modeling showed that tsunamis could result from the quakes.

Indonesian newspapers covered the conclusions, and reports were published in a scientific paper. But apparently little was done to warn the public, which distresses Harris.

There should have been "full disclosure" to the residents of the region, he said. They could have been told what to do if the earth starts moving — head to higher land if any was nearby, or, if not, go inland.

"In retrospect, I feel responsible that they (the Indonesian government agencies) have limited resources and limited budget. . . . We should have gone to the people who were actually in harm's way."

That, he said, "would have made a big difference."

Around last Christmas, a 9.3-magnitude earthquake slammed a region southwest of Sumatra, the second-largest quake ever recorded. It and the resultant tsunami caused massive death and destruction.

A report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific says that as of late January, "the death toll was approaching 160,000, with thousands still missing and thousands more seriously injured, many of them disabled for life."

According to Harris, that may not be the end of the destruction.

In the 1950s, a series of huge earthquakes began in a zone including Alaska and Kamchatka, Russia. The 1964 Good Friday earthquake in Alaska, which triggered a tsunami, was part of the series.