El Nino likely to drag on for a few more months

Bad news for California: More El Nino is coming.

The strange weather phenomenon battering California and soaking the Southeast is likely to continue for two to three more months before easing, federal climate experts warned Thursday.Through April the rain "in areas like Florida, Southern California or central California is going to be very much like it has been for the last month or two months," said Ants Leetmaa, director of the federal Climate Prediction Center.

"What you'll have is episodic events. There'll be periods where it dries out, then again there'll be periods of heavy storms like we've seen in the past," Leetmaa said.

El Nino, a periodic ocean warming and air pressure change in the eastern Pacific Ocean, causes weather changes worldwide. This time it has been particularly nasty for California, where a series of storms has undermined roads and buildings and driven people from their homes.

Damage estimates so far range from $250 million to $1 billion, Commerce Secretary William Daley said Thursday. The 1982-83 El Nino, the worst so far this century, caused an estimated $2.5 billion in damage in the United States, Daley said. He noted that property values have risen sharply since then.

The current El Nino is as strong as that earlier one, added D. James Baker, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Baker proudly pointed out that the current El Nino was accurately forecast by his agency, the first time that has been accomplished by government forecasters.

That forecast, issued last year, permitted time for people to prepare for the worst, he said, noting that the Federal Emergency Management Agency held a seminar in California last year to discuss the threat.

Leetmaa's forecast for February through April calls for wetter than normal conditions to continue in California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Florida. At the same time, the Puget Sound region, Montana and the Great Lakes, Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley seem likely to be drier than usual.