From Deseret News archives:

Is economic storm ahead?

Published: Friday, Sept. 16, 2005 5:22 p.m. MDT
 |  E-MAIL | PRINT | FONT + - 
While core inflation was relatively well-contained in August, national and local reports released Thursday show that the economic effects of Hurricane Katrina have yet to fully be revealed.

Wells Fargo Bank's monthly Wasatch Front Cost of Living report found that prices rose 1.0 percent in August, led by a hefty 5.8 percent jump in transportation costs.

On the national front, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday, again led by a jump in energy prices — which had shot up by the largest amount in more than two years even before Katrina hit at the end of the month. The hurricane caused a further price spike due to widespread shutdowns of oil and natural gas facilities in the Gulf Coast region.

Excluding volatile energy and food costs, however, the "core" rate of inflation nationally rose a modest 0.1 percent.

"Overall, inflation appears to be pretty well contained," said Sterling Jenson, regional managing director for Wells Capital Management. "The question is, what will be the full impact of Katrina?"

Story continues below
Since much of the data coming out now was collected prior to Katrina's landfall, analysts will have to wait for September's economic reports are released to see more clearly the storm's aftermath. But, analysts have predicted that the storm, the country's worst natural disaster, will trim economic growth by as much as a full percentage point in the second half of this year and cost around 400,000 jobs.

While they do not believe that storm-related disruptions will be enough to push the country into a recession, analysts caution that this forecast could be proven wrong if energy prices keep soaring, triggering significant cutbacks in spending by consumers in other areas.

Phil Hopkins, managing director of U.S. regional services for Global Insight, estimates that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the area of New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner was 4.9 percent in July. He said that based on his calculations, the jobless rate there could easily climb to 25 percent.

And analysts predicted that the overall inflation figure will be even higher in September, reflecting the fact that gasoline prices climbed even higher to more than $3 per gallon in September as the impacts of the Gulf Coast shutdowns were felt in supply shortages.

"Gasoline prices have gone through the roof," said Labor Department analyst Patrick Jackman, who said gasoline was about 30 percent higher in the first two weeks of September as compared to the first two weeks of August.

But Jenson noted that gasoline prices have begun to ease and should continue downward as the summer driving season ends and demand lessens.

Comments

You can be the first to comment on this story.

previousnext

Latest comments

Woods, wife unavailable for interview

Umm, yes they would. Ever heard the phrase, "Right to remain silent"?

An example of what is wrong about this rivalry. It is about hate, about...

Aggies blow away T-birds

Did your kid not make the team? Have you been a T-Bird fan the past 20...

Hall mouths off about hate of Utah

You can hate the fans and the players but I felt that hating the program went...

Letters: Ethics petition a fraud

"Revenge" on whom? How is this an "illegitmate power grab"? How the heck does...

Hello Max, please offer your apology to the Utah fans. Not all are...

experimentation is no longer necessary. With micro-camera, chemistry...

Dick, are you saying that the BYU defense is as fast as other teams? I agree...

BYU is champion of the state

Good for you Max. I couldn't have said it better myself... but let me try......

I'm a 25-year BYU fan. Great game to watch - it was close to the very last...

Advertisements