"It appears that economic growth will be hobbled by this event," Knold wrote. "I believe that it will have more of a negative impact on the national economy than it will on the Utah economy. Even then, it is hard not to see this event slowing the Utah economy.

"Nationally, I don't see a recession, but the economic momentum seen over the past year will be deflated. I believe this was going to happen anyway, as the worldwide energy market was slowly but steadily pushing energy prices higher, and there eventually comes a point where the economy will react negatively. Katrina may have set this slowdown in motion."

Despite that, Sargent said it isn't likely that Utah businesses will start trimming their payrolls.

"This year into next year, we'll probably see a general slowing in our growth rate," he said. "But probably it won't result in a terrible amount of change in our unemployment rate. We certainly feel for our friends and neighbors in the Gulf Coast. But as far as direct impacts on us, it won't be nearly as severe as what they'll have to go through."

Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the national jobless rate was 4.9 percent in August.

---

E-mail: jnii@desnews.com