Utah jobless rate falls

Utah's jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent in August, but a state official warned that the economy probably will slow toward the end of the year, which may affect hiring.

Utah's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was down 0.3 of a percentage point from July's 4.7 percent. About 55,200 Utahns were jobless last month, according to a Utah Department of Workforce Services report released Tuesday.

Total employment — the year-over change in the number of non-farm wage and salaried jobs — was 3.6 percent in August, up slightly from July's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

Austin Sargent, regional economist with the Department of Workforce Services, noted that the August report does not include the impact of Hurricane Katrina. That said, Utah's economy seems to be holding steady.

"Utah continues to chug along quite nicely," Sargent said. "We're seeing a pretty good rate of job growth and broad expansion across industries."

The professional and business services sector led the way, adding 8,800 workers during the year-over period. Construction wasn't far behind, adding 8,600 workers to its payrolls. Trade, transportation and utilities also performed well, bringing on 6,000 workers during the 12-month period.

However, Sargent warned that Utah's economy will slow as high oil prices continue to pull at pocketbooks — at the gas pump and, soon enough, via home heating cost increases.

"The impact, post-Katrina, is hard to predict," Sargent said. "We're a pretty good distance from the impact, the direct impact, of the storm. Certainly, though, we'll see and have to deal with higher energy costs. We'll also be looking for other inflationary impacts. I suspect that in the near term, we'll be focused on fuel: gasoline and natural gas costs. Those were going up anyway. Katrina just sped it up a bit."

Mark Knold, the department's senior economist, agreed.

"The Utah economy is standing on a solid foundation and is well-positioned to take the economic punch that is anticipated to come from Katrina, particularly through higher energy prices," Knold wrote in the August report. "We saw the immediate effect of Katrina on gasoline prices at the pump, and it is not anticipated that they will drop any time soon. In addition, there is another round yet to come this winter, when we will also be paying more for our heating costs. This short-term outlook leads one to conclude that the economy will see some slowing in the months ahead."

Still, Knold said the impact will be felt more on the national level than directly on Utahns.