Commuter rail won't begin to reduce congestion till after 2020. It is axiomatic that congestion isn't reduced when traffic is already free-flowing. UDOT Legacy and I-15 officials and calculations from EIS data say/show that current high car congestion, typically 20 minutes per peak-hour, peak-direction trip, will drop to zero and stay there for many years once those projects are finished.

Real congestion won't reappear even then. It will be delayed another five to 10 years by the near-paradigm-shift in car-highway operation from a flood of 21st century computer, GPS and communication/cell technologies applied to transportation. This ongoing car technology revolution will fill the gap in unmet demand for more capacity in the corridor as noted in the Legacy studies.

Bill Gates says every car will have a computer, preferably Microsoft. Putting ever-smarter computers in cars portends user-paid Super-Intelligent Transportation Systems. A million smart cars will be networked with roads and intersections. This will go far beyond current government ITS. Even the GM OnStar and clones, with nearly 3 million satellite-tethered subscribers, will be superseded. The progress and possibilities are endless.

HOV-electronic lanes may host automated buses operating as "virtual trains." (Type "automated bus testing " into Google.) This is a lower-cost replacement for commuter rail. Automated buses will integrate more economically with future bus operations.

Commuter rail will damage bus ridership as TRAX did. Bus ridership didn't grow as predicted in the QGET (Smart Growth) Databook. By 2002, despite heavy population growth, buses carried just 73 million passenger miles, the same as in 1978. This stark fact undermines many presumptions and predictions of planners and visionaries.

Empty buses are everywhere, especially at suburban TRAX stations. Re-routing some of those empty buses to run in the Davis-Weber corridor could give free bus expansion for over a decade.

In order to deal with the many hazards that confront us in these difficult times, lots of money — mountains of money — will be needed. We'll also need a complete multi-path freeway grid along the Wasatch Front. There are plans, including commuter rail, to give UTA $18 billion for just 1.5 percent average share of trips between now and 2030. We will need that money to survive.

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Michael T. Packard of Sandy is an engineer and safety consultant.