Guard against an energy bust

The West has long been vulnerable to boom-and-bust cycles. Whether they were tin pan gold miners attempting to stake a claim or oil shale developers in more recent years, many people experienced short-lived prosperity followed by financial ruin. Most workers rode out the booms and soon left town when the bottom dropped from the respective markets. The people left behind, the longtime residents of these towns, were left to pick up the pieces.

People in Utah's Uinta Basin know these stories first-hand. It took years for eastern Utah, western Colorado and southwestern Wyoming to recover from the energy bust of the 1980s. Understandably, they are leery of a repeat two decades later. Particularly worrisome is the resurgence of interest in oil shale development, which has been authorized under the Energy Policy Act.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, says there are more than 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in Utah and Colorado in the form of oil shale and tar sands. Hatch, a Senate negotiator on the bill, has labored to include tax breaks and production incentives into the legislation. Given the long-term political implications of the United States' growing dependence on imported oil, it is prudent to spur exploration of energy alternatives.

But enthusiasm about yet another big discovery must be tempered by a sense of history, economics and concerns for Western water and the environment. Unlike tar sands, which have a proven track record in Canada, the promise of oil shale is far more speculative. Absent existing commercial production, there is no way to certify reserves. Although some oil companies have conducted years of field exploration, decisions about commercialization aren't expected before the end of the decade.

This is not to say technology cannot be developed to extract shale oil at a reasonable price and in an environmentally friendly manner. Rather, it is an acknowledgment that it cannot be accomplished overnight, even at current market prices for crude oil. Large-scale university research on oil shale was shelved or significantly downplayed after the 1980s bust.

Beyond the science, there are a number of public policy issues that would accompany the development of oil shale. Most important of these concerns the West's precious water supply. It remains to be seen if the West can spare the water needed for large-scale oil extraction processes. Another question that must be addressed — since many Easterners already view Utah as a dumping ground for waste — is how much waste will these activities produce. And where would it go?

Market forces and political winds suggest the time has come to get serious about domestic energy sources that are clean and sustainable. But much more research must be done to determine if oil shale will play a viable role in the future or if its development will play out as yet another short-lived boom and devastating bust.