Panel fears collapse of U.S. health system

Like a termite-infested wagon wheel, the American health care system is rolling along. But without intervention, when it breaks — and health and fiscal experts say it will if it follows its current course — it will be disastrous.

The congressionally created Citizens Health Care Working Group, charged with no less than recommending a health system that "works for all Americans" — is getting less attention than failed Clinton-era health reform efforts. But its work could impact the lives of virtually all Americans for decades to come, those experts say. And it's more likely to succeed because of the panel's nonpartisan approach.

Friday, the group met in Salt Lake City for one of five national meetings to hear from experts like Comptroller General David M. Walker and Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, who helped create it. The messages were both dire and hopeful.

Walker, who leads the Government Accountability Office, called federal health spending "an unsustainable trend" that will break the economy if it's not reined in. "The federal government is on an imprudent and unsustainable path," he said. And the financial situation is "worse than advertised."

But while he pointed out that system needs a complete makeover, it will likely have to be incremental, with a plan behind it, he said.

Spending for health care makes up a large chunk of federal spending, about 15 percent, and it's rising faster than inflation and economic growth. Germany and France are the only other countries that spend more than 10 percent on health care.

By 2013, health expenditures are projected to equal 18.3 percent of gross domestic product.

In the meantime, the American health care system performs below par on key health measures such as life expectancy and preventable deaths, Walker said. Quality is uneven and many patients don't receive clinically proven effective treatment. Information technology isn't used widely, which would reduce medical errors and improve quality. And there are no uniform standards for care, something other speakers at the hearing said brings clearly better outcomes at lower cost.

Health care costs are just part of a larger, bleak picture painted by Walker, who said that the gross debt per person is about $25,000 — about four times the current annual gross domestic product. GAO analysis indicates balancing the budget in 2040 could require actions as large as "cutting total federal spending as much as 60 percent or raising federal taxes up to 2.5 times today's levels," he said. Closing the long-term fiscal gap based on reasonable assumptions would require "real average annual economic growth in the double-digit range every year for the next 75 years," deemed unlikely.