Both sides see abortion 'Armageddon'

WASHINGTON — The battle over a Supreme Court vacancy has poured gasoline on the already fiery "culture wars" over social issues such as gay marriage and display of the Ten Commandments.

But for intensity and emotion, none of the cultural crusades surpasses abortion. And that clash promises to peak in the debate surrounding the replacement of retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.

"This is a battle of true believers," said John Zogby, an independent pollster. "Both sides see this as Armageddon."

The political dynamics of the issue are unpredictable and potentially perilous for both Democrats and Republicans, as Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., learned last November after comments he made about abortion and the high court nearly cost him the chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Now, the two camps are engaged in an all-out war, even though the president has yet to name a nominee and even though O'Connor's replacement alone is unlikely to lead to a reversal of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that established a woman's constitutional right to end a pregnancy.

Log on to the National Organization for Women's Web site and you read that the right to abortion is in jeopardy and "women's lives (are) on the line."

Featured at the top of the page are photographs of four women who, the site says, "died because they could not obtain safe and legal abortions. If Roe v. Wade is overturned, these pictures could include your daughter, sister, mother, best friend, granddaughter."

Despite the high court's 6-to-3 reaffirmation of a right to abortion in 1992, other key decisions have been decided by a 5-to-4 margin. And abortion-rights activists fear an anti-abortion justice will set the court on a slippery slope to unraveling Roe.

"It would take O'Connor plus another replacement for a wholesale reversal of Roe," said Nancy Northup, president of the Center for Reproductive Rights. "But (O'Connor's successor) could have a huge and negative impact on access to abortion."

At the conservative Family Research Council, top lobbyist Connie Mackey doesn't see any immediate hope of overturning Roe v. Wade, even if President Bush nominates a staunchly pro-life candidate to fill the slot of O'Connor, who voted to uphold Roe in 1992.

"We're not thinking for one minute that this is going to change with one court appointment," Mackey said. "The numbers show you that."