In 1964, Arizona State provided the NFL's No. 3 pick, Charley Taylor, and the NBA's second pick, Joe Caldwell. Taylor, a running back/receiver, went on to the Hall of Fame; Caldwell made two NBA and two ABA All-Star teams but isn't listed among the NBA's all-time greats.

Michigan's Tom Mack was drafted No. 2 in the NFL in 1966, and later that year Cazzie Russell was basketball's No. 1 pick. Mack went on to become an 11-time Pro Bowl selection and Hall of Famer, while Russell played a dozen seasons in the NBA, averaging 15 points. But he made just one All-Star team.

And in 1978, Kentucky produced the No. 2 NFL pick in defensive end Art Still and the No. 3 NBA pick in Rick Robey. Still played 12 years, earning Pro Bowl honors four times; Robey averaged fewer than eight points and five rebounds in an unremarkable eight-year career.

What all this means is that the odds of Smith and Bogut surviving in their respective leagues are good; the odds of them ruling are minimal.

Few are expecting either Bogut or Smith to dominate their leagues, though both are better athletes than they're given credit. Neither is planning on getting by on lightning speed or superhuman leaping ability, so that should actually help.

But will they succeed?

I expect they'll have good careers and maybe even become all-stars.

But superstars and Hall of Famers?

Think Art Still and Joe Caldwell.

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E-mail: rock@desnews.com