Will draft success for the U. last?

The University of Utah didn't wait long to get the word out.

When you supply the top picks in the NFL and NBA drafts — in the same year — there's no reason to be timid.

Thus, the U. ran 10-by-10 ads in the Salt Lake newspapers this week noting its achievements in other areas, too, such as research, gymnastics, skiing and dance.

Utah: Land of the Free, Home of High Achievers.

But with success comes expectations. Like, for instance, being great at the next level. If you're the top pick, you're supposed to be the best player in the draft, right? Not always.

Still, that doesn't prevent soaring expectations.

So what happens if quarterback Alex Smith and basketball center Andrew Bogut are busts? What if they go over like a mouse in a punch bowl?

Nothing. They'll just be busts. Meanwhile, the U. will have to go back to promoting its research and dance programs.

Too bad they don't broadcast those kinds of things live on ESPN.

It's not as though the top pick is always a smash hit. In fact, there have been quite a few busts. Ki-Jana Carter, for instance. He's the Penn State running back picked No. 1 by the Bengals in 1995. Carter proved neither skillful nor durable enough to thrive in the league. He averaged just 3.6 career yards rushing and seven yards receiving.

And don't forget defensive tackle Steve Emtman. Already have?

He was the top NFL pick in 1992. After his rookie season, he started just 10 games in the next six years.

In basketball, the story is the same. For every LeBron James there's a Joe Smith. For every Patrick Ewing there's a Michael Olowokandi.

The bottom line is that being picked No. 1 guarantees only that you'll be given every opportunity.

Otherwise, you're on your own.

The one certainty about expectations is this: Getting selected No. 1 is one thing; being No. 1 is something else entirely.

So what are the odds of a Bogut-Smith world takeover? In some ways, we're working without a net right now. No school besides Utah has twin No. 1 picks.

In fact, a single university has supplied top-three picks in both sports just four other times, with mixed results.

In 1959, Mississippi State delivered Bill Stacy in football (No. 3) and Bailey Howell (No. 2) in basketball. Howell made six all-star teams, won two titles and was named to the Hall of Fame. But Stacy played five unspectacular seasons with the Cardinals, making one Pro Bowl appearance.