Utah economy lags — for now

Although the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in June, Utah's business leaders reported somewhat lagging conditions.

But a report released Friday said Utah is still pointed toward economic growth in the coming months.

The Mountain States Business Conditions Index, which surveys supply managers and business leaders in three Western states — Utah, Colorado and Wyoming — found Utah's reading slightly lower, at 57, compared to May's 59.1 and April's 58.9.

The index ranges from zero to 100, with a figure greater than 50 indicating a growing economy over the next three to six months.

Ernie Goss, a Creighton University economics professor and director of the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group, said in a prepared statement that while Utah's June survey results were down, they "remained in a range pointing to healthy economic growth in the months ahead.

"Our survey, along with other national data, indicates that Utah will likely be among the leaders nationwide for 2005 in terms of GSP (Gross State Product) growth," Goss wrote. "Only food processors reported economic pullbacks for June."

The Creighton group, in Omaha, Neb., prepares the monthly regional report.

The index for the entire three-state region climbed to its highest level in more than a decade, Goss wrote, as durable goods manufacturers and value-added services companies reported fertile growth conditions. The index was 71 for June, up from May's already-robust 70.2.

Colorado's business conditions pushed ahead, to 72.4 from May's 68.8. Wyoming, on the other hand, saw its first decline since February, to 77.6 from 81.1 in May.

Goss attributed the regional growth to strong new orders (86.8) and jobs (65.1).

"Since last June, the region has added approximately 86,000 jobs for an annualized growth rate of 2.5 percent," he wrote. "I expect the region to end 2005 on a very positive note, with economic growth for the rest of the year exceeding that over the past year. Only food processing and telecommunications remain economically weak across the region."

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday that its national manufacturing index was 53.8 in June, compared to May's 51.4, a welcome upturn after six consecutive months of slowing in the sector.

As in the Creighton report, a reading of 50 or above in the index means the manufacturing sector is expanding.

"These are the most positive signs that we have seen in several months, and they indicate that we may be through the 'soft patch' that many observers touted," said Norbert J. Ore, chair of ISM's manufacturing business survey committee.