From Deseret News archives:
Utah's accurancy on grad rate hailed
The report criticized the way states calculate and report data on graduation statistics.
However, Utah education officials feel the figures they reported reflect the number of graduates more accurately than does the national report.
The report, entitled "Getting Honest about Grad Rates: How States Play the Numbers and Students Lose," examines the 2002-03 graduation rates states reported to the U.S. Department of Education in January 2005. The numbers are compared against a Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI), which uses enrollment and diploma-count data from the U.S. Department of Education. It estimates the probability that a student entering ninth grade will complete his high school diploma on time, according to the report.
To do this, researchers compare the number of 10th-graders in one year to the number of ninth-graders the previous year to estimate the percentage of ninth-graders who moved up. Researchers continue the process through grades 10-12 and multiply these four ratios to arrive at an estimated graduation rate.
Utah's percentages are much closer than many other states. Utah reported an 85 percent graduation rate, while the CPI estimated 78 percent, only a 7 percent difference.
North Carolina showed the biggest discrepancy. The state reported a 97 percent graduation rate while the CPI estimate was 64 percent, a difference of 33 percentage points.
Mark Peterson, Utah Office of Education spokesman, said the state isn't too worried about the difference.
"We are much more comfortable with our numbers than their numbers," he said. "Their figures can only be a ballpark estimate and are based on census data. Any student mobility makes their numbers fairly inaccurate."
Peterson gave the example of a student moving from county to county. If he started in Box Elder, then moved to Davis and ended up in Jordan District, the CPI estimate would show him as a missing student or high school dropout in each of the districts. The estimate also doesn't take into account name changes or the fact that the rate can be influenced by swelling numbers of students in fast-growing areas such as Alpine, Jordan or Tooele counties.
However, despite Utah's good showing, Peterson said high school dropout rates are still a concern.
"Whether the rate is 85 or 78, neither is acceptable. Students need at least a high school diploma to get a decent job. We're doing what we can to keep students in school," he said.
E-mail: twalquist@desnews.com
