Early primary states include Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona. And Romney has advantages in three: New Hampshire, where Boston news is effectively local news, so he already is well-known to the state's Republican voters; Michigan, where Romney grew up and his father is remembered fondly; and Arizona, where Mormons, who are almost certainly inclined to look favorably on a Romney candidacy, comprise 6 percent of the population. Romney also knows that a viable presidential candidate must have adequate funds. He has a demonstrated ability to raise money — having done so for the Olympics. But he also has his own fortune — not inherited but made. Says Murphy, "He'd be an electable Forbes."

Murphy has a theory of presidential elections. "First the party," he says, "and then the country look for the right guy at the right time." The party, via the primaries, will look for a conservative, most definitely. But beyond that it's hard to say what the party will be looking for, because precise issues are not yet in sight.

In his speeches to Republican activists, Romney plays off the extremely Democratic state he governs to highlight his conservative credentials. Thus, in Spartanburg, he said, "Being the only red dot in Massachusetts is a little difficult, and sometimes high stress." And: "Being a conservative Republican in Massachusetts is a bit like being a cattle rancher at a vegetarian convention." And: "We are not Taxachusetts anymore."

But Romney has also found a way to talk beyond the present moment and toward the unknown political landscape of 2008 by describing challenges to our national security, to the economy and to the culture. The specific issues he addresses within each category can change with events, but the categories themselves are general enough to last. And making one of them "national security" is smart, for it enables Romney to address matters beyond a governor's jurisdiction — and that must be the top priority of any president.

Romney, who spent $300 million protecting 10 Olympic venues for 17 days during the 2002 Winter Games, and who serves on the Homeland Security Advisory Council, believes that "we need much better intelligence . . . a far more comprehensive and extensive intelligence capability." He is also concerned about "the long-term military threats that we may face as the Asian world emerges economically."

Romney's political experience is limited — two campaigns and two-plus years as governor. But he has a record on economic and social issues that should appeal to conservatives. And his service as a governor might work in his favor with voters generally — it often has for governors who run for president. There is this wild card, too: If the economy is in the tank, or government in some genuine crisis, Romney will plausibly be able to represent himself as the man who could turn things around. In sum, Romney would make an appealing candidate. He just might be "the right guy at the right time." Even though he is a Mormon.

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