French vote may stop EU unity in its tracks

PARIS — The French think the European Union's proposed constitution is too British. The communists think it's too capitalist. And some capitalists think all it does for business is create red tape.

In fact, when the constitution is discussed these days, there are only a couple of points of agreement:

• Today, the French will vote on it.

• And it's in trouble.

"You know, it's really the first time the elites have ever asked for our opinion about the future of Europe," said Noel Patrick, a 45-year-old Parisian. "We've been waiting for our chance to tell them they've got it all wrong."

Polls show today's vote will be close, and that the constitution is likely to be defeated. Because of the way the European Union is structured, the constitution is dead if any one of the 25 member nations doesn't approve it.

That wouldn't mean the European Union goes away; it would continue to be governed by existing treaties. But it would mean that progress toward a more unified Europe would come to a halt, at least for now. And it might mean trouble for future plans to strengthen the role of the European government, based in Brussels, Belgium.

"If Malta had rejected it, well, Malta would be out," explained Janis Emmanouilidis, a German Foreign Ministry adviser. "But if France rejects it, there is no Plan B. Europe without France is not a viable option. A 'no' vote puts Europe in crisis, though how deeply we don't know."

In broader terms, it also could signal trouble for the U.S.-supported push for globalization and free trade and may make Europe a more fractious entity to deal with at a time that the United States is hoping the continent will take a more unified approach on security concerns and the war on terrorism.

The reasons for the constitution's troubles here boil down to a single sentiment: The constitution does little to protect jobs and government benefits in Western Europe in the face of competition from newer member states in Eastern Europe.

"This treaty doesn't elevate the rest of Europe, and it doesn't protect France. What good is it?" Anna Olivier, 65, said while waiting for the start of a "For me, it is No" rally in a working-class neighborhood of Paris.

French opponents point to the recent relocation of a Renault plant to Romania as an example of the future unless a better constitution is written. In a continent where unemployment hovers around 10 percent in countries such as Germany and Italy, they aren't alone in their concern.