No guarantees as Utah holds its breath over bases

By Friday, the state of Utah will have either dodged a bullet or it will have begun the fight of its life.

The Department of Defense is expected to announce which military bases it intends to close in the latest round of base closures. The Pentagon plans to eliminate dozens of the nation's 425 military installations, which could include Hill Air Force Base, the Tooele Army Depot or Dugway Proving Ground. News reports on Monday said the announcement could come as early as Friday, although the Pentagon has until May 16 to issue its list.

Former Rep. Jim Hansen, R-Utah, a member of the Base Realignment and Closure commission, has cautioned Utahns that all military installations are under scrutiny. Hansen, who defended Hill AFB tooth and nail during his 22 years in the House, has a decidedly different role as member of BRAC. "My responsibility is to do what's best for the United States military to keep us all free," Hansen told the Deseret Morning News last month.

If there's any saving grace, there's reason to believe the defense cuts won't be as deep as originally envisioned. Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said the cuts would be less than half of the previous estimates of 20 to 25 percent of affected military installations, the Associated Press has reported.

Before Utahns start breathing a sigh of relief, they would do well to remember Hansen's words of caution. "A lot of people and some of our delegation are saying, 'Now look at the money we are putting up at Hill; obviously they can't close it,' " he said. "Well, they don't know much about base closings if they make that statement. That doesn't mean a thing."

Seemingly, the best outcome would be that none of the Utah installations will make the list. But according to the process, even that's no guarantee. Once the BRAC receives the list from the Department of Defense, the nine-member panel will spend the next three months holding hearings and visiting the targeted facilities. It can add or remove bases from the list before forwarding it to President Bush by Sept. 8. Bush then has until Sept. 23 to send the list back to BRAC for revisions or forward the matter to Congress, which has 45 days to vote the list down in its entirety. If that doesn't happen, the list of base closures goes into effect.

The impact of a base closure is difficult to quantify. Some prognosticators say the closure of Hill Air Force Base would set back Davis County's economic growth by a decade or more. Property values could drop by a quarter, and some 48,000 jobs would be needed to offset the economic impact.