WASHINGTON — Far fewer U.S. military bases are likely to be closed and realigned than originally foreseen, in part because of the planned shift of tens of thousands of troops from bases in Asia and Europe.

As a result, Hill Air Force Base might have a greater chance of survival because of its function and size, some Utahns believe.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said this week that surplus base capacity is not as great as earlier estimated — an assessment that will be comforting to communities hoping to retain bases they rely on for an economic boost.

"Without final figures, I would say the percent will be less than half of the 20 to 25 percent that has been characterized previously," Rumsfeld said in a conference call Thursday with newspaper editorial writers across the country, according to two writers who were on the call.

Utahns are cheering the news.

"Obviously if they're going to have fewer base closures, that improves our chances of not being on the list," said Davis County Commissioner Dannie McConkie.

Hill Air Force Base, Tooele Army Depot and Dugway Proving Ground are all candidates for closure or reduction. Hill is the largest and, if closed, could prove devastating to the state's economy, Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, has said.

"Some of us wondered if they ever would get to that 20 or 25 percent target," Bishop told the Deseret Morning News Friday. "But we still have to wait and confirm that when the official list comes out in a week or so."

Bishop said he had considered the earlier numbers to be quite high — and the potential cuts quite deep. "So any reports that the actual number of closures will be less that what Secretary Rumsfeld has talked about before is encouraging," he said.

Hill, on the border of Davis and Weber counties, is the state's largest employer and contributes about $2.8 billion to the state's economy each year. Lawmakers recently appropriated $5 million from the state's general fund to invest in "job-creating" programs around Hill.

"We have tried to show what we believe is community backing and strength and cooperation with the military," McConkie said.

Rumsfeld had previously said the current round of base closings and realignment — the first since 1995 — would result in less shrinkage of base capacity than the 20 to 25 percent figure the Pentagon has cited for the past few years.

But he had not previously said it might be less than half that range.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said in an interview Friday that in a meeting on Feb. 8 Rumsfeld told him and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, also R-Texas, that about 15 percent of base capacity would be cut.