Utah is projected to gain 270,331 people age 65 and older by 2030, more than double the 2000 senior population. The projections show a 2030 senior population of 460,553, or 13.2 percent of the state's population.

That would be the nation's lowest percentage of people age 65 and older.

Meanwhile the state's projected 1.1 million people under 18 in 2030 would make up about 30 percent of the state's total population — the nation's highest percentage.

In 2000, the census showed the state's 718,698 people under 18 was 32 percent of the population.

Even though Utah's median age — projected at 30.4 in 2030 — will remain below the national projected median age of 39.0, the state will see the strain as its 500,000 baby boomers retire, said Ron Stromberg, assistant director of the Utah Division of Aging and Adult Services.

Stromberg said the population 85 and older is the state's fastest-growing age group.

"We are concerned about the aging population," Stromberg said. "It will affect every aspect of our communities."

The baby boomers, he said have "always been shorted." The schools weren't prepared for the influx of children, young families found housing shortages, he said.

"The question is, are we ready now?"

Stromberg said the Legislature this year took a positive first step when it created the Commission on Aging. The commission will look at issues such as health care and transportation, he said.

Perlich said the senior population is expected to be fast-growing, but the state is also approaching a school-age population boom over the next 10 years.

"It's a double whammy. It's coming," Perlich said.

She pointed to a dependency ratio, or the ratio of people under 20 and 65 and older to those of working age. That ratio for Utah is already higher than the nation and will continue to be as both increase, according to the projections. By 2030, Utah is projected to have a dependency ratio of 89.4; the nation's projected ratio is 84.5.

Stromberg referred to a growing number of senior dependents per working-age adult. Nationwide, there were 40 workers for every retiree in 1935, Stromberg said. In 1999 that had decreased to 3.3 and by 2040 is projected to decrease to 1.6, he said.

"The upside for Utah is we've got lots of kids . . . ; with our large work force, our economy may be very, very good," he said. "The downside is, what if other states offer a lot more money for our kids to go work there?"

On a national level, issues such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security need to be addressed, he said.

Nationally, the number of children is expected to increase, but drop slightly in percentage. The projected 85.7 million children will comprise about 24 percent of the population.

Three states — California, Texas, and Florida — are projected to account for nearly one-half of the nation's total population growth, gaining more than 12 million people each over three decades.

California and Texas are expected to remain the nation's most populous states, and by 2011, Florida is projected to surpass New York as the nation's third largest state.

The projections, based on Census 2000, were produced by the U.S. Census Bureau Population Division in correspondence with U.S. interim projections released last March.

The projections represent the results of a mathematical projection model given that current state-specific trends in fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration continue.

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E-mail: dbulkeley@desnews.com