Fill 'er up — Lake Powell set for runoff from deep snowpack

It's only a few inches higher now, but rising . . . upwards of 45 feet is the prediction. That, at least, is the latest forecast on the rise of Lake Powell over the next few months.

The April hydrologist report from the Bureau of Reclamation states there is enough snowpack in the Upper Colorado Basin to take the lake level from its current elevation — 3,555.4 — to its expected peak sometime in July at 3,600 feet, which, if conditions allow, would raise the level of the lake 44.6 feet.

This report, which came out April 6, does not include precipitation that will fall between now and the end of the rainy season, which would include the last two storm fronts that moved through Utah and into lower Colorado this week.

Nor does it address the possibility that the release of water from the Glen Canyon Dam could be reduced. Current requirements are that 8.23 million acre-feet of water be released downstream annually. In a tug-of-war for water, the upper basin states want the total release lowered, while the lower basin states want it to remain at 8.23 million acre-feet, despite the fact that the lower states had an exceptionally wet winter and received more than 2 million acre-feet of additional water. A decision on the release figure is expected later this month.

Even at an elevation of 3,600 feet, the lake would still be 100 feet below "full pool," but it is significant in that it reverses a five-year drought that brought below normal runoff into Lake Powell.

Snowpack in the basin above the lake is currently 117 percent of average (see chart). Starting back in 2000, snowpack was 62 percent, then it dropped to 59 percent in 2001 and then to its lowest point of 25 percent in 2002. In 2003 and 2004, it was 51 percent of average.

Tom Ryan of the Bureau of Reclamation, stated in his monthly report that unregulated inflow into the lake started to increase last summer, "in response to precipitation events last fall and winter."

In fact, November was the first month to see above-average inflows since September 1999.

Unregulated inflows in January were 128 percent of average and for February 118 percent of average. Inflows dropped in March to 89 percent of average, but are expected to increase from April through July.

The lake is currently holding roughly 33 percent of capacity or 7.98 million acre-feet of water.

In its April inflow forecast, the National Weather Service stated that there is enough snow in the upper basin to deliver 8.5 million acre-feet of unregulated inflow from April through July.