Selection of a non-European pontiff is a possibility

Could the Catholic Church be on the brink of electing its first non-European pope in 1,500 years? Chances are better than ever before in history, Vatican experts say.

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Nearly two-thirds of Catholics lived in Europe in 1900. Now, three-fourths of the world's 1 billion Catholics reside elsewhere.

A non-European pope is "absolutely a possibility," said Philip Jenkins, a religion scholar at Pennsylvania State University.

The church requires nine days of public mourning. The conclave of cardinals electing a successor must begin deliberating within 15 to 20 days after his death.

Only those younger than 80 are eligible to vote.

The next pope will be chosen from among more than 100 cardinals. About 18 percent hail from Latin America, 10 percent from Asia, about 14 percent from North America and about 11 percent from Africa.

But more than half come from Europe, which is why some scholars remain convinced that the next pope, like most of his predecessors, will be European.

Dr. Gerald Fogarty of the University of Virginia said African and Latin American cardinals are too distracted by issues at home. "It's going to be another Italian," he said. "The time isn't right yet for an African or Latin American pope. Those cardinals aren't as well-known as the Europeans, so they would have a hard time garnering enough votes."

John Paul was elected 26 years ago largely because of the support of Latin American cardinals, who didn't want another Italian. The Polish native became the first non-Italian pontiff in 455 years.

He continued down the path begun by Pope Pius XII in the 1930s to give the Roman Curia more of an international flavor. John Paul became the first pope to travel to more than 100 countries, and he appointed more cardinals from non-European countries than anyone before him.

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"Because of Pope John Paul's travels, the papacy is more international than ever before," said Chester Gillis, a papal expert at Georgetown University. "With that kind of global presence, Italians are no longer shoo-ins to be elected pope."