VATICAN CITY — The intense guessing game over who will be the next pope has only one certainty: the cardinals will must decide whether to follow John Paul II with another non-Italian or hand the papacy back to its traditional caretakers.

The Polish-born John Paul was the first non-Italian pope in 455 years and brought a new vitality to the Vatican and challenged parochial attitudes throughout the church. One view holds that the papal electors will want to maintain the spirit by recognizing the Roman Catholic centers of gravity outside Europe in Latin America and Africa.

Another theory suggests that the Italians will press to reclaim the papacy after John Paul's 26-year reign — the third-longest in history.

There is no clear favorite when the 117 cardinals begin their secret conclave later this month.

But names often mentioned as "papabile" — the Italian word for possible papal candidates — include Cardinal Francis Arinze, a Vatican-based Nigerian, and Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes.

Arinze, 72, converted to Roman Catholicism as a child and shares some of John Paul's conservative views on contraception and family issues. But he brings a unique element: representing a nation shared between Muslims and Christians at the time when interfaith relations assumes growing urgency. If elected, he would be the first black pope of modern times.

Hummes, 70, is archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil, and urges more attention to fighting poverty and the effects of a globalized economies. He supporters note that Brazil's role as a Latin American political and economic heavyweight that could help the Vatican counter the popularity of emerging evangelical churches in the region.

Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodiguez Maradiaga of Honduras, the 62-year-old archbishop of Tegucigalpa, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. But he could be too much of a break for Vatican conservatives. He has studied clinical psychology and has a dynamic, outspoken style.

Among Italians, Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the archbishop of Milan, is a moderate with natural pastoral abilities and an easy style that appeals to the young. But Tettamanzi, 71, is not considered widely traveled and some critics believe he could to impose too strong an Italian outlook.

Other Italians widely mentioned as possible candidates include: Cardinal Angelo Scola of Venice, 63, who is relatively young and brings a cosmopolitan flair from his city at historic cultural crossroads; and Giovanni Battista Re, 71, who has served as president of the Vatican commission for Latin America since 2001.