Oil futures rally above $55 a barrel

Demand, dearth could send prices above $100

Published: Friday, April 1 2005 9:27 a.m. MST

Crude oil traders shout transactions at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices peaked at $56.10 a barrel Thursday.

John Marshall Mantel, Associated Press

Crude oil futures rallied above $55 a barrel Thursday, helped by rising prices for gasoline and heating oil and an investment bank report that said strong demand and tight supplies could cause a "super spike" that sends prices above $100 a barrel.

After climbing as high as $56.10 a barrel, light, sweet crude for May delivery settled at $55.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an increase of $1.41. An intraday Nymex peak of $57.60 was set on March 17.

Brent crude futures rose $2.20 to settle at $54.29 on the International Petroleum Exchange.

Heating oil rose more than 5 cents to finish at $1.6576 a gallon on the Nymex, while unleaded gasoline rose nearly 6 cents to $1.6549 a gallon.

On Wednesday, heating oil futures settled more than 5 cents higher and gasoline futures closed more than 2 cents higher following the release of U.S. government data that showed a drop in the nation's supply of gasoline and distillate fuel, which includes heating oil.

The report, which also showed a large increase in crude oil inventories, said gasoline demand over the past month was 2 percent higher than last year.

"I think the market is a little surprised that demand is staying pretty strong even with record-high prices," said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York.

The average retail price of regular unleaded gasoline is $2.15 per gallon, according to the Energy Department.

As for the Goldman Sachs report that raised the possibility of oil prices rising as high as $105 a barrel, Bentz said: "I don't think it's influencing traders that are in the oil industry," meaning traders who are buying and selling on behalf of clients that actually produce or refine petroleum. Bentz said the report has likely influenced speculators by justifying already high prices.

Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun N. Murti said in the report that "oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a 'super spike' period — a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and re-create a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return."

Murti said factors contributing to the runup in prices include geopolitical turmoil in oil-producing nations and greater energy efficiency worldwide that has enabled economies to grow in spite of the higher prices.

But Murti said he does not believe hedge fund activity is playing a significant role in global oil markets.

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