Utah job growth expected to make healthy gains

Job growth in Utah should see healthy gains during the next two quarters as business conditions continue to strengthen, according to a report released Tuesday.

The Mountain States Business Conditions Index for Colorado, Utah and Wyoming was 61.7 in February, up from from January's 60.3. In Utah, the index leaped to 65.6 from January's vigorous 62.5 and December's 63.3

The index ranges from zero to 100, with a figure greater than 50 indicating an expansionary economy over the next three to six months. It is formulated by the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., using the same methodology that the Institute for Supply Management uses for its national index.

The national index, also released Tuesday, declined to 55.3 in February, from a revised reading of 56.4 in January. The February figure was below the reading of 57 anticipated by analysts.

Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the institute's survey committee, said that "while the overall rate of growth is slowing, the overall picture is improving as price increases and shortages are becoming less of a problem."

While most indices in the report grew at a slower pace in February, exports rose faster — a trend that reflects the impact of the weaker dollar, which has even led some manufacturers in Canada and Europe to shift production from their home countries to the United States, according to Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, N.C.

"Exports are likely to become more important this year," Vitner said.

The Creighton University report showed opposite movement in the three-state region, where imports hit a February reading of 66.7, unchanged from January, while new export orders fell dramatically to 59.1 from January's 70.

However, Ernie Goss, Creighton economics professor and author of the regional report, wrote that "our survey indicates that the nation will likely continue to experience high trade deficits contributing to further weakening in the dollar.

"While rising energy prices, higher short-term interest rates and international political tensions reduced February confidence, it remained at a reasonably high 66.7, indicating optimism about economic growth for the next six to nine months," Goss wrote.

Utah's manufacturing sector reflected growing confidence. New orders registered a robust 75, with production at 75.4, inventories at 62.5 and employment at 62.5. The only black mark was delivery speed, at 37.5.