And the Oscar goes to . . .

Predicting the winners of last year's Academy Awards was so easy it was Hobbit-forming.

That is, anyone who picked "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in every category was on the money most of the way. (The film took home 11 Academy Awards.)

But given the number of wide-open races this time around, predicting this year's Oscar winners won't be quite so easy.

And if you think that Hobbit joke above is lame, consider it preparation for the equally groan-inducing jokes comedian Chris Rock is bound to fire off as he hosts the Academy Awards ceremony Sunday (6 p.m., Ch. 4).

Anyway, here are my picks in 16 of the 24 Oscar categories — the six major categories and 10 more that have me feeling fairly confident.

BEST PICTURE

• Nominated: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray," "Sideways."

• Will win: "Million Dollar Baby," in a tight race over the other critics' darlings "The Aviator" and "Sideways."

• Should win: "Million Dollar Baby," for its crafty plotting and terrific performances.

BEST ACTOR

• Nominated: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jamie Foxx, "Ray."

• Will win: Foxx, for his spot-on impersonation of R&B musician Ray Charles.

• Should win: Cheadle, whose intensity was what made "Hotel Rwanda" so believable.

BEST ACTRESS

• Nominated: Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."

• Will win: Bening, turning the tables on the heavily favored Swank (which Swank did to Bening in 2000).

• Should win: Winslet, who was even better in "Eternal Sunshine."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Nominated: Alan Alda, "The Aviator"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"; Clive Owen, "Closer."

• Will win: Freeman, though