Storm pattern in coming weeks crucial to Utah

To bust a drought yet avoid another drenching disaster, Utah needs a particularly specialized weather pattern for the rest of the winter: a series of precision storms that will keep the north blanketed in white while sidestepping the south.

Otherwise, according to Utah's top snow surveyor, Randy Julander, the scenario could be bleak. If it's the opposite from the ideal scenario, floods could hit the south — while drought will continue in the north.

If March turns out extremely warm and dry in northern Utah, the decent snowpack could evaporate in the breeze, doing little to break the six-year drought. That's what happened in 2004.

On the other hand, if storms pound the entire state, that could be good for the north but would add to an already monstrous snow accumulation in southern Utah and pose a flooding danger.

Julander, snow survey supervisor for the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service in Salt Lake City, said parts of Utah will definitely "get a lot of water this year." The drought may be effectively over in those regions.

Among places that should receive a lot of precipitation are the Santa Clara and Virgin river drainages near St. George, the Escalante River, the Upper Sevier River and southeastern Utah.

"Those areas are going to have a tremendous amount of water," he warned.

Residents "should be preparing to receive that water right now."

Also, the snowpack in the Uintah Basin may "rip and run, big time," Julander said.

Some southern Utah regions have record snowpacks. At latest report, Midway Valley, an automated Snotel station above Cedar City, had 52 inches — not snow depth, but 52 inches of water equivalent in the snowpack.

"That is a new all-time record high for that site and we still have a good month and a half, maybe two months, of accumulation left to go," Julander said.

A site called Widtsoe on the East Fork of the Upper Sevier River, near the Escalante River, has passed its previous record for the all-winter accumulation. "There's a lot of water" that will pour through both systems, he said.

Julander had this warning for outdoor enthusiasts: "This is not a good year for Boy Scouts to be wandering down in the slot canyons and the Virgin Narrows and places like that." In past years, flash flooding has killed hikers in narrow canyons.