The State Office of Education is trying to estimate in what districts potential tuition tax credit recipients might live. The guesses will weigh into how much state money each district receives, Ogden said.

"We have $97 million in new revenue. This (tuition tax credits) bill takes away $11.3 million of that . . . and Carson Smith takes another million out," Ogden said. "We haven't received a lot of new money."

Kjar also predicts tuition tax credits will cost the state $133,800 in fiscal 2007.

Time will tell how all this will shake out. But the discussion nevertheless reveals layers of a complicated public policy decision.

"What I see in looking at it more closely is . . . who's assuming all the risk in these programs? Is it the state or the public schools?" said Rusk, who leads the 18,000-teacher union. "It's us. We're assuming all the risk."

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