2nd District race 'surprising'

WASHINGTON — The campaign for Utah's 2nd Congressional District was one of the most expensive House races in the country, one of the most bitterly contested and the results were among the most surprising.

That's according to "Dancing Without Partners," a detailed analysis on the nation's most contested 2004 political races, conducted by the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University and released Monday in Washington, D.C.

Democratic Rep. Jim "Matheson's victory was impressive, given Bush's landslide victory in the state," the report states. "He ran an effective and well-financed campaign. He portrayed himself as an independent member of Congress and an effective advocate for Utah's interests."

But the campaign of Republican challenger John Swallow also committed serious blunders that opened the door to Matheson's victory.

Swallow never convinced voters he had done much since his 2002 campaign against Matheson to merit reconsideration, the report found, nor did he develop a compelling message.

The study of the 2nd District, authored by Gary Bryner and Stephen Roberds, also found that Swallow's negative campaign, both in the primary and general elections, backfired on him. There was no evidence the negative ads eroded support for Matheson, and plenty of evidence that negative ads in Swallow's primary race against Tim Bridgewater "alienated some of the Republican base he would need to defeat Matheson."

According to exit polls conducted by BYU, 31 percent of those queried had a very unfavorable impression of Swallow, compared to 8 percent with a very favorable impression. That is almost the exact opposite of Matheson, where 8 percent had very unfavorable impressions of Matheson and 21 percent had very favorable impressions.

The study also pointed out several key blunders in Swallow's media campaign, like mailers criticizing Matheson for his votes in favor of legislation supported by the Republican members of the Utah delegation.

"The media coverage focused on the controversies and blunted any chance of a rally that might have at least brought Swallow a little closer to victory," the report states.

Researchers pointed out that the amount of money spent on the 2nd District campaigns in 2002 and 2004 was "unprecedented and reflects the competitiveness of the districts," in contrast to the other two districts that "receive very little attention and funding."

Matheson outspent Swallow by $530,000 in 2004, although the margin was actually about double that amount because Swallow spent a large chunk of his money fending off the challenge by Bridgewater for the GOP nomination.