Bush budget bleeds red

WASHINGTON — The economy is growing. Tax revenues are climbing. But can these factors rescue President Bush from a federal deficit that seems stuck above $400 billion?

The answer, unfortunately, is almost certainly no, many analysts say.

For all the programs that Bush is expected to slash in his $2.5 trillion budget proposal today — from health care and housing aid to Amtrak — the cuts would total less than $15 billion next year and barely dent the deficit.

By far the biggest parts of the budget — Medicare, Social Security and military spending — would be immune from cuts and are expected to grow rapidly for years to come.

On top of that, Bush's plan to replace part of Social Security with private savings accounts could require additional trillions of dollars in borrowing over the next several decades.

Vice President Dick Cheney on Sunday defended Bush's budget against Democratic criticism that the president had to seek steep cuts in scores of federal programs because he is unwilling to roll back first-term tax cuts that opponents contend primarily benefited the wealthy.

"This is the tightest budget that has been submitted since we got here," Cheney told "Fox News Sunday."

"It is a fair, reasonable, responsible, serious piece of effort. It's not something we have done with a meat ax, nor are we suddenly turning our backs on the most needy people in our society."

The president, who campaigned for re-election on a pledge to cut the deficit in half by 2009, is targeting 150 government programs for either outright elimination or sharp cutbacks.

Bush will propose spending $2.5 trillion in the budget year that begins Oct. 1. For the current year, he is estimating the budget deficit will reach a record $427 billion. That compares with last year's $412 billion deficit.

The five-year projections in the budget will show the deficit declining to about $230 billion in 2009, when a new president takes office.

The cornerstone of Bush's budget strategy is a belief that vigorous economic growth, spurred by supply-side tax cuts designed to provide incentives for upper-income Americans to produce more wealth, will generate big jumps in tax revenue that gradually reduce the deficit.

At first glance, Bush might seem to have grounds for optimism. Surging tax revenue did come to Washington's rescue during the economic boom of the 1990s. Budget analysts, however, say that such an event is much less likely this time around. The contrasts are stark:

• Through most of the 1990s, government spending grew at a snail's pace. But government spending soared during Bush's first term and is expected to keep growing rapidly as baby boomers start to claim old-age benefits.