Iraq's neighbors uneasily watching election

DAMASCUS, Syria — With suspicion, uncertainty and dread, governments across the Middle East are waiting for Sunday's landmark parliamentary election in Iraq. To many, the vote is a deeply worrisome exercise that could produce one of a handful of bad options.

Shiite Muslim alliances from Iraq's majority sect are expected to win, and neighboring governments fear that the result will provoke fresh violence from Sunni Muslims, a minority in Iraq that dominated under Saddam Hussein. If the violence isn't contained, a civil war could erupt, causing the nation to disintegrate along sectarian and ethnic lines and spreading instability through the region.

Then there are concerns about the elected government itself. Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia — ruled by Sunni Muslims — are wary of an Iraqi government dominated by Shiites, many with ties to Iran, the region's other large Shiite majority nation.

Tehran, on the other hand, worries that a pro-Washington Baghdad might allow U.S. soldiers to stay indefinitely. Syria and Turkey fret that Iraq's Kurds may press for independence, stirring up separatist sentiments among their own Kurdish populations.

If the election succeeds in producing a representative Iraqi government, that may be the most threatening outcome of all — a direct, democratic challenge to the region, where kings, dictators and clerics traditionally rely on fear and force to hold onto power.

"If it's a successful election, then everybody will be scared of it," said Ali Shukri, a retired Jordanian general and longtime adviser to the late King Hussein. "If everybody tries to take the Iraqi model, there will be upheaval in the region."

But a continuing, low-grade insurgency in Iraq, analysts say, could benefit many rulers in the region. Such a scenario would keep the U.S. government too busy to pressure other governments in the neighborhood, but stop short of a civil war that could spill across Iraq's borders.

"It's not like Germany's neighbors . . . in 1949 (who said), ' . . . Germany had a democratic election, so there's a future,' " said a senior Baghdad-based Western diplomat. "Iraq's neighbors aren't like that. They don't know how it's going to turn out."

A lot depends on how the new Iraqi government — likely to be led by Shiites, who make up at least 60 percent of the population — behaves.

If the new powers in Baghdad try to exclude Sunni Arabs and Kurds from the government, that probably would inflame public sentiment in the neighboring Sunni-majority states, such as Syria, not to mention Egypt and others.