Defeat of Initiative 1 was huge surprise

We fully expected outspoken opposition but hoped it could be contained to a handful of detractors who wouldn't have much funding or organization. We figured our broad coalition of prominent supporters and our superior paid media campaign would be enough to overpower a limited opposition campaign.

In the end, detractors were able to rally an opposition force just big enough to win, with Norm Bangerter, Olene Walker, Jim Hansen, Al Mansell, Marty Stephens, the Deseret Morning News and numerous legislators speaking against it.

Opponents ran limited radio and newspaper ads, all raising fear, uncertainty and doubt about provisions of the initiative and the $150 million tax increase.

The result demonstrates how grass-roots, neighbor-to-neighbor "buzz" fomented by media and concern by respected leaders can overpower a sophisticated advertising campaign.

A post-election survey showed that no one main messenger killed Initiative 1. Most voters were actually unaware of the position of most of the prominent opponents. Instead, it was the steady background buzz raising uncertainty about the tax increase, the use of the money, the impact on state finances and so forth. Late-deciding voters voted overwhelmingly against.

Going right through the final weekend, the initiative still had support in the mid-50s, giving us cautious optimism. But the tide was quickly turning, and the exit-poll-inspired victory party was fun but illusory.

Footnote: Dan Jones reminds me that back in the mid-80s a proposal was placed on the ballot dealing with hospital tax status that was backed by most of the state's political and business establishment. A full-scale campaign, advised by a young Mike Leavitt, was waged in its favor. But in the last few weeks a small citizens group came out of nowhere and with little money or organization was able to spread enough fear, uncertainty and doubt to kill it.

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Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. A former candidate for Salt Lake mayor, Pignanelli served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.