Get U.S. off oil, expert urges

Amory Lovins drives a hybrid that gets 64 miles per gallon and lives in a solar-powered house that is so energy-efficient he's able to grow bananas in an indoor jungle high in the Colorado Rockies.

Yet the 54-year-old renewable energy evangelist, who emerged as one of the most influential energy thinkers three decades ago during the last oil crisis, is no anti-establishment foe of the free market.

The United States can end its dependence on foreign oil and make money along the way, he argued at a recent environmental conference in San Rafael, Calif., with the salesman-like flair of a Fortune 500 chief preaching to a hall of shareholders.

Crude prices have hit record highs this year as U.S. soldiers fight and die in the country with the world's second-largest oil reserves, casualties in an expensive war Lovins would argue it's folly to fight if — as some Bush administration critics charge — it's really all about fossil fuel.

"The United States can get completely off oil and revitalize its economy led by business for profit," says Lovins, who runs the Rocky Mountain Institute in Snowmass, Colo. "Saving and substituting for oil costs less than buying oil. Getting completely off oil makes sense and makes money."

A new book by Lovins and his think-tank colleagues, "Winning the Oil Endgame," offers a technology-driven blueprint to wean the country off petroleum within a few decades: first, double the fuel efficiency of cars, trucks and airplanes; then replace gasoline with alternative fuels such as ethanol and hydrogen.

The transition to a post-petroleum future will generate jobs, create new industries, reduce greenhouse gases and improve national security, he says.

For now, automakers and energy firms need to adopt new business strategies, and lawmakers need to craft policies that promote this oil-free future. By Lovins' estimates, it will require an investment of $180 billion over 10 years.

That's less than the U.S. involvement in Iraq will end up costing, and Lovins says it will save $70 billion a year by 2025.

"Right now, the world supply-demand balance for oil is so terribly tight that any little thing just throws the market into a tizzy," Lovins said in a recent interview. "We're not going to drill our way out of this one."