Bowls, pairings, payouts hinge on outcome of BYU-Utah tilt

As Utah and BYU come to the close of the 2004 regular college football season, projections about bowl-game opportunities, pairings and payouts are about as precise as election-day exit polling.

So many variables, so much potential for change, so much confusion.

Going into Saturday's Utes-Cougars finale, this much is certain:

• The Mountain West Conference is in the final year of a contract to send its regular-season champion to the Liberty Bowl.
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• The conference is also contracted to have the Las Vegas Bowl select a second team, with the next-highest-placing team bound for the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco.

• Win or lose, Utah is the 2004 Mountain West Conference champion, is already is bowl-eligible and will participate in a postseason bowl.

• If Utah wins, the Utes — currently No. 6 in the weekly Bowl Championship Series rankings — continue their posturing for a guaranteed spot in one of the four premier BCS bowls: the Sugar, Orange, Rose or Fiesta bowls and the minimum per-team payout of $14.4 million.

• If a non-BCS conference team is ranked among the top six in the BCS' top six in its final poll, it is guaranteed a spot in one of the four BCS bowls.

• Even if Utah wins, the BCS bowl pairings will not be determined for another two weeks, while other teams — including some inside and just beyond the BCS' blessed top half-dozen — finish their regular seasons and play in high-profile conference championship games.

• If Utah loses, the Utes will return to the Liberty Bowl for the second straight season.

• If BYU wins, the Cougars have a 6-5 winning overall record and are eligible for a bowl invitation for the first time in three seasons, giving the Mountain West its fourth bowl-eligible team for 2004.

• If BYU loses, the Cougars are not eligible for bowl consideration.

• Oh, and it's certain MWC commissioner Craig Thompson and his staff are prepared for practically any possibility — and that Thompson isn't going to be drawn into discussing all the "what ifs."

"We'll probably have a lot of say Saturday night," said Thompson, who will be in Salt Lake City this weekend for the Utah-BYU game.

Now for the uncertainties.

• An undefeated Ute team could end up in any one of the four BCS bowls — with even a remote shot to play for the national championship in the Orange Bowl.

On the other extreme, the Utes could win out and watch some late-season shuffling in the BCS rankings result in getting shut out of a big-time bowl and big-bucks payday.

• Liberty Bowl officials have announced that — BCS or no BCS — they expect the Mountain West Conference champion to be at their bowl to face the Conference USA champ.