Utah job growth may slow

Utah job growth continued at a "healthy" pace last month, but the state's senior jobs economist said Tuesday that the momentum may slow toward year's end.

The Utah Department of Workforce Services reported Tuesday that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the state in October was up slightly to 4.8 percent from September's revised 4.6 percent. About 58,100 Utahns were unemployed last month, compared to 64,100 in October 2003.

Meanwhile, total employment — the year-over change in the number of non-farm wage and salaried jobs — grew by 3 percent in October, down slightly from 3.1 percent the month before. Since last October, Utah has added about 32,200 new jobs.

"We're at a point now where employment growth is probably leveling off for the year," said Mark Knold, senior economist with the department. Knold attributed the slowing to higher energy prices and the strong jobs pickup at this time one year ago.

"The higher energy prices will put, at the very least, a 'soft patch' in the national economy," Knold said. "It will also probably have a slowing impact in the state of Utah."

In the report accompanying October's jobs numbers, Knold wrote about the comparison between now and last year.

"To gauge employment growth, we make a year-over comparison," Knold wrote. "We compare this October against last October. As the economy started gaining strength in the latter half of last year, we are now comparing back against a a stronger economic period than existed in the early months of 2003. Therefore, we would expect the employment growth numbers to moderate, or level off, as we compare back against a stronger economic period."

But Knold said Utah's jobs environment is "still positive." Utah's growth rate outpaced the national rate, he said, though that may be attributed to demographic pressures specific to the state.

"When the economic shackles were released, we had more of an economic climb to catch up to the demographic pressures felt on a national level," Knold said. "It's still encouraging in terms of the employment growth level, especially considering where we've been the last few years. We've got a couple of years' worth of population growth to absorb and catch up with. But you have to start somewhere."

The professional and business services sector led the field in October, adding 7,600 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities added 5,500 workers, while education and health brought on 4,500 new people.

The construction industry, according to Knold, is "the darling of this expansion."

Construction "acts as a barometer industry," Knold wrote in the report. "When the economy is doing well, it largely follows that construction is also doing well. It doesn't drive the economy. Instead, it responds to the economy. With the addition of 4,200 new year-over jobs and a growth rate of 5.9 percent, this sector's response signals a strong Utah economy."

Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department reported that employers nationwide added 337,000 new jobs in October, many of them for hurricane cleanup. The surge was the largest in seven months and far outpaced analysts' predictions. The national unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent.

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E-mail: jnii@desnews.com