A good day for pollsters

Internet "bloggers" gained a lot of respect during the recent presidential campaign when they forced CBS into a corner over its reporting of an alleged document from the National Guard in the early '70s.

They lost most of it on Election Day.

Early in the day, exit polls nationwide were finding a decided trend toward John Kerry. That could be attributed to a number of factors, not the least of which is that women were more likely to vote during the day, and they tended to vote for Kerry in greater numbers than did men. Pollsters, who know their trade inside and out, were aware of this. They warned television networks and the Associated Press about this, and the early trend did not get reported.

It did, however, find its way onto the Internet, where bloggers took over and predicted a Democratic victory. For awhile, that led to some elation in the Kerry camp, and some despondency at the White House. By the time the day was over, it also led some people to question whether pollsters had been discredited. They had not.

By the time the polls closed, pollsters in each state were pretty much dead on. In fact, a quick check of major polls on the eve of the election shows they more or less averaged a 51-49 percent lead for President Bush, which was exactly how the popular vote turned out.

The discredit belongs to the bloggers, whose exuberance was unchecked by editors jealously guarding their credibility — the lifeblood of any news organization.

The Internet, the wild, wild West of information, is a place where the public must tread carefully and skeptically. Occasionally, bloggers will score a direct hit, as they did with the sloppy reporting at CBS. When that happens, the story will gain a life of its own and find its way into the mainstream media. When the information is bogus, it will continue to circulate in cyberspace, promoted by carnival barkers who erroneously claim it is "too hot" for the institutional media to handle.

A segment of the population always gets sucked in by hucksters. Some people are naturally inclined toward conspiracy theories when they feel alienated or powerless. They are aided, unfortunately, by many talk-radio shows.

Pollsters do face challenges. The trend toward young people using cell phones and toward people refusing to answer questions will eventually make it more difficult to obtain an accurate sample. But Tuesday was a banner day for the polls and for the mainstream media who took pains to be accurate and professional.