Arafat illness prompts warning

An ailing Yasser Arafat — too weak to stand, unable to hold down food and spending most of Thursday sleeping — agreed to leave his battered West Bank compound in Ramallah for the first time in more than two years and fly to Paris for urgent medical treatment.

The sharp deterioration of Arafat's health is forcing the Palestinian Authority to do something it has largely avoided: consider life after Arafat.

And one Middle Eastern expert in Utah says the future for Palestinians after Arafat's death has more in common with what is playing out in Iraq: factions fighting for control for power and anarchy.

University of Utah associate professor of Middle Eastern history Peter Von Sivers said the situation may also force younger Palestinian leaders to take a page from the book of Iraqi extremists and start taking Westerners hostage to force their hand with the Israeli and U.S. governments.

"The Palestinian Authority is still more or less in control, but it would be very difficult to predict if they can keep control of Hamas," Von Sivers said.

The 75-year-old Arafat's resistance to naming a predecessor in an effort to hoard power will leave behind a people in disarray, experts say.

Israel's stepped-up campaign to assassinate militant Palestinian leaders, combined with Arafat's refusal to name a new leader, bodes dark times ahead, Von Sivers says.

"There are clear signs now of growing anarchy," Von Sivers said. "Israelis have been killing off other leaders, and we are getting down now to those in lower ranks who are younger in age and tend to be much more radical and less known in authority."

The result may be a Palestinian Authority that could collapse under disorder and corruption, leading various Palestinian factions to fight among themselves for power. In this chaos, Von Sivers said, he sees a ripe chance for Westerners to be used as bartering tokens, much as is the case in Iraq.

The timing of Arafat's death before or after the U.S. election could also set the track for U.S. involvement in the region, Von Sivers said.

Recent blood tests revealed Arafat had a low platelet count, though it was unclear what caused the ailment, his doctors said, ruling out leukemia. In deference to his deteriorating condition, Israel lifted its travel ban on Arafat, allowing him to leave his battered headquarters compound in Ramallah for the first time since 2002 and to return if he recovers.