Which candidate will make Mideast peace a priority?

WASHINGTON — You have to give credit to Arab-Americans, and to the overlapping category of American Muslims, for knowing what side they are on in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and for voting for those they believe would address their concerns.

Four years ago, they voted almost 2-1 for President Bush, thinking he would act like his father. Today, according to the Zogby poll, American Muslim voters are going 10-to-1 in the opposite political direction — for John Kerry over Bush. Not only do they see Bush's Patriot Act as discriminatory, most of these Americans dislike the president's unwavering support of Israel — including his backing of Ariel Sharon's security fence and the diplomatic isolation of Yasser Arafat.

This stunning reversal of opinion within a growing voting bloc is having an impact. For example, about a half million Arab-Americans live in Michigan, according to the Arab American Institute; most have turned strongly anti-Bush. That's why pollsters are counting Michigan, with its 17 electoral votes, as "leaning toward Kerry."

What about the other voting group that has a special interest in ending the war launched against Israelis after Yasser Arafat turned down the offer brokered by President Clinton?

Jewish-American voters who differ with their Arab and Muslim compatriots, one might logically conclude, would seriously consider supporting the candidate who many Israelis believe has been their best friend in the White House.

But such logic is misleading. Four years ago, candidate Bush received 20 percent of the "Jewish vote," about halfway between the low point for a Republican candidate (5 percent for Goldwater) and the high point (39 percent for Reagan). Today, it appears that Bush is getting only slightly more than the 20 percent he did last election.

Despite the fact that this president has firmly backed Israel's vigorous self-defense — and time and again vetoed or denounced lopsided U.N. votes to ostracize Israel — eight out of 10 Jewish-American voters will still vote as a bloc to oust him.

Why? To hold the bloc's usual support, Kerry has me-tooed every policy decision Bush has made affecting Israel — finding old armistice lines "unrealistic," keeping Jerusalem undivided, favoring Arafat's isolation. Though at first he told an Arab-American audience that Israel's security fence was "a barrier to peace," Kerry changed his mind to comport with Bush's support of Ariel Sharon's plan.