From Deseret News archives:
Tree rings reveal 'megadroughts'
That's the conclusion of researchers who pieced together an unprecedented regional drought record from tree rings sampled at hundreds of sites across the West.
The new record is the most comprehensive reconstruction of Western drought to date, extending previous efforts by 900 years.
The new record sheds light on a drought-prone 400-year period between A.D. 900 and 1300.
It is punctuated by four decades-long, regionwide megadroughts centered on the years 936, 1034, 1150 and 1253.
"With all the concern about the current drought, you would like to think that, gee whiz, we ought not expect to see this one almost ever again," said tree-ring expert Edward R. Cook of Columbia University. He is lead author of a report in the latest edition of the journal Science.
"And yet, in comparison to those four periods of megadrought in that 400-year interval, we haven't seen anything yet," Cook said. "Things could be much worse, and there's no reason to argue that it couldn't happen again."
Connie Woodhouse and C. Mark Eakin of the National Climatic Data Center in Boulder were co-authors.
The latest study compiles tree-ring records from more than 600 sites across the West.
The 400-year droughty period in the West roughly coincides with a sustained balmy era in Europe, Scandinavia, Greenland, North America and elsewhere known as the Medieval Warm Period.
The researchers suggest that the medieval warming could have, paradoxically, triggered a cooling of eastern Pacific surface waters known as La Niqa.
La Niqa conditions are linked to drought in the West. Cook and his colleagues suggest that future warm periods caused either by natural climate variability or the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases linked to the burning of fossil fuels could trigger the type of Western megadrought that hasn't been seen in 700 years.
Robert Webb of the U.S. Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder called the Cook team's tree-ring record "the most comprehensive reconstruction of drought in the Western U.S. to date."
But the suggested links between the Medieval Warm Period, greenhouse warming and future megadroughts is flimsy, he said.
"They're going out on a speculative limb," Webb said. "We don't really have that good an understanding of that 400-year (warming) period, and the analogy to greenhouse warming is tenuous."
Much of the current Western drought, which began in 1999, occurred during a La Niqa.
Recently, weak-to-moderate El Niqo conditions have developed. El Niqo is a warming of the eastern Pacific tied to wet winters in the Southwest.
Though the drought has eased over Colorado's Front Range, severe to extreme drought persists in far western Colorado and across most of Utah, Wyoming, Nevada and Arizona, according to the federal Drought Monitor.
Comments
- Tigers vs. Miners by the numbers 2:32 a.m.
- Springville vs. Dixie by the numbers 2:25 a.m.
- Wasatch vs. Juan Diego numbers 2:22 a.m.
- Mustangs vs. Tbirds by the numbers 2:02 a.m.
- Nuggets win after clock review 1:41 a.m.
- Robbery ends poorly for one suspect 1:20 a.m.
- Wednesday on TV 12:59 a.m.
- Integration is possible on TV 12:59 a.m.
- Herbert talks land issues in D.C. 12:59 a.m.
- Developer looking to buy RSL share 12:58 a.m.
- Utah group finds homes for orphans
- Pratt pleads not guilty to sex charges
- Y. tight ends talented tandem
- Jazz blow big lead, hang on
- Utes get extra motivation
- Senators want food tax restored
- Hair-pulling raises more questions
- Lobo land like home for BYU lineman
- BYU soccer incident still popular
- U. hopes to keep clicking
- House passes health care bill
265 - TCU showdown has big implications
188 - Lobo suspended
185 - Cougars crush hapless Cowboys
155 - Senators want food tax restored
152 - Utah Jazz fall apart against Kings
131 - TCU 4th in AP poll; U. 16th, Y. 22nd
119 - No 'backlash' for pioneers, gays analogy
105 - S.L. vote pending on gay protections
104 - Utes pound winless Lobos
89
Maybe someone out there can help me understand how raising the state...
Why do so many people live so close to refineries in Utah and elsewhere?
Glad that he's finally going to be scouting how to beat TCU. Seems to...
Too anyone who whines about people who EARN high salaries; when was the last...
Don't know bout all that "Texas" stuff, but I'm here to tell you people, that...
Gorbachev was a brilliant leader and single most important individual in...
It buys votes from every irresponsible, lazy American in order to keep the...
My fear is the damage to the economy adding trillions of dollars to the...
I don't know, Ak can be horrible too, there are those times when he only...
Utah 24, TCU 21
You are so right about the BS of these 3 radio clowns!
And some of you out there could care less if we give up our freedoms as long...


You can be the first to comment on this story.