Now Kerry leads Bush

WASHINGTON — Sen. John Kerry has taken a slim lead over President Bush, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the president's support tumbling on personal qualities, the war in Iraq and the commander in chief's bedrock campaign issue — national security.

Fewer voters than a month ago believe Bush is the best man to protect the country and fight the Iraq war.

The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, showed a reversal from early September, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. With bloodshed increasing in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks, and Bush stumbled in their initial debate.

Among 944 likely voters, the Kerry-Edwards ticket led Bush-Cheney 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The race was tied 47-47 percent among all registered voters, with a 2.5 point margin of error. Other polls show the race just as tight.

Nearly three-fourths of likely voters who were surveyed said they had watched or listened to the first presidential debate last week. Some 39 percent said they came away with a more favorable view of Kerry, while just 8 percent felt better about Bush.

"I was more comfortable with Kerry after the debate," said Louis Robinson, a 66-year-old retiree from Pittsburgh. "I just like the way he carried himself." Nearly a third of likely voters who watched said the debate gave them a less favorable view of Bush.

Nearly six in 10 of all the people questioned — likely voters or not — said the country was headed on the wrong track, reflecting a gloomy national mood that could jeopardize Bush's re-election bid. His overall approval rating among likely voters, 46 percent, was at its lowest point since June — down from 54 percent in late September.

Eric Schlichting, a suburban Chicago inventory manager who tends to vote Republican, said Iraq is troubling him.

"Up until the last 18 months, I was leaning toward Bush, but the more that happens the worse it gets," Schlichting said. "He sticks to his guns, but his aim is so far off that sticking to his guns is not paying off."

While national polls gauge the potential popular vote, the real race for the White House is playing out one state at a time. That competition is remarkably close, with analysts saying both candidates are within reach of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency.