"It's a much more difficult situation for Blair. At home people are asking, 'What have you got out of this? You supported a policy that has become a nightmare!' And his only credible answer is that he got satisfaction that he did what he believed to be the right thing — and in the long run, the Middle East will end up a better place."

Naughtie has also resurrected the alleged disagreement with Bush and Blair by Colin Powell, the U.S. secretary of state. Naughtie has numerous sources from "the intimate circle of Jack Straw and Colin Powell" who reveal that Powell was angry at Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney (calling them "crazies") for promoting the Iraq war without international allies.

Straw is British foreign secretary, Powell's counterpart. According to Naughtie, Straw and Powell talked almost every day during the lead-up to war, and "they saw eye to eye. Powell was livid about the decision to go to war too soon. Straw and Powell also thought the Pentagon was unrealistic in saying Americans would be greeted by Iraqis as liberators. There is no question that Powell is the odd man out in the Bush administration."

As far as the American election is concerned, Naughtie thinks Blair will fare well with either Bush or Kerry — even though the Democratic Party is "sore at Blair" for his support of Bush. If Bush is re-elected, he and Blair will continue to work together. If Kerry wins, "Blair will be gambling with him on the beach in Nantucket within a few weeks. They would get on extremely well.

"Blair could be helpful to Kerry, too. He is only 51. Yet he's been around awhile, and been in the thick of debate on all international issues."

Then there is always the possibility that Blair will lose out in the next British election. A majority polled in England have always been against the Iraq war. But Naughtie thinks Blair will win re-election anyway. "If the election were held today, he would most certainly win it. Most believe there will be an election next year, and that he will be re-elected.

"Blair is a great survivor. He's resilient. He's good. He's tough — and he can make political deals, but he has a very emotional component. He's an actor, in touch with the dramatic side. He responds well to moments. He can find the words and gestures to touch people. That's the authentic Blair."

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E-mail: dennis@desnews.com